wet U.S. weather plus wetter than expected northern Brazil weather this week top the list

3-8-10

GLOBAL COMMODITY ANALYTICS & CONSULTING LLC MID-DAY GRAIN UPDATE:

GOOD DAY EVERYBODY, HERE’S THE LATEST AT THE MERC AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID-DAY SESSION:

• Pre-report jitters, mixed outside markets, and wet U.S. weather plus wetter than expected northern Brazil weather this week top the list of fundamentals likely pushing prices as we start this week; as a result, the grains opened higher, with the beans finding the most support off of the South American weather. There was also news that the Chinese Govt. plans to continue to import large quantities of soy in order to keep their strategic reserve at 40% of their usage—this likely helped shore-up the demand.

• As we head into mid-day, with the beans trying to go higher by double-digits, it will be interesting to see if either hedge pressure from South America or short-term technical sellers try and come in and pressure prices.

• We’ve seen the corn and wheat also go higher, with the wheat receiving the bulk of the buying, while corn is having trouble holding-onto 2 to 3 cent gains here early in the session.

• Going into the close, wet US weather should start to underpin the corn, if the beans and wheat can hold their gains past mid-day. Let’s be watching for May Beans to re-take its 10-day Moving Avg. of the $9.55 ½ level; if it can, then the corn should follow in sympathy, in my view. Some areas of the southern plains are looking at over 2” of rain, as are already saturated areas of the western corn belt.

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The information above is not meant to be advice to buy or sell futures or options. Copyright, 2009 Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC