Category: Technical Analysis
Trading Plan for August 1, 2012
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
- European markets are trading in a mixed range from -0.3% up to +0.8%
- Asian markets in a mixed range from -0.9% up to +0.1%
- US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the bell
Trading Plan for July 25, 2012
Pre-market update (updated 8:00am eastern):
- European markets are trading +0.8% higher.
- Asian markets traded over -1.0% lower.
- US futures are mixed due to weak AAPL earnings, but S&P trading higher.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), New Home Sales (10am), EIA Petroleum Report (10:30am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- SPX sold off for the third straight day and closed below the recent uptrend off of the June lows.
- Double top-formation coming together on SPX that could pose as trouble in the days ahead if confirmed with a close below 1334.
- Volume continues to trickle higher, which is concerning for the bulls, as it shows escalating fear building in the markets.
- Approaching short-term overbought, but intermediate and longer-term is no-where near such a reading.
- Bulls must hold 1325. A close below that level, and you have what would begin a new downtrend.
- On 7/18 we managed to break through the descending trend-line off of the 4/2 highs (see chart below).
- But not this is starting to look like an incredible ‘head-fake’.
- Watch the SPRI that I posted this past Sunday and how it shows us near-ready for the reversal signal.
- Also note the price resistance the SPX is up against on the weekly chart.
- The VIX pushed above 20, which typically shows mounting bearishness for the markets.
- 30-minute chart shows a nice channel uptrend being threatened by today’s early morning action.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Covered FB yesterday at $28.29 from $28.94 for a 2.3% gain.
- Sold MDT at 37.49 from 38.47 for a -2.6% loss.
- Sold AUTH at $5.19 from $5.02 for a 3.4% gain.
- Added GS yesterday as noted below. .
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Textbook example of wedge breakout in TF
Textbook example of a price holding, and then breaking out of a diagonal
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Trading Plan for July 6, 2012 | Shareplanner.com
Pre-market upadate (updated 9:00am eastern):
- European markets are -0.8% lower.
- Asian markets traded -0.4% lower.
- US Markets are nearly 1% lower ahead of the opening bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Employment Situation (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Yesterday’s pullback was light, and without any sense of panic to it.
- Today’s market is trading lower off of a disappointing payroll number.
- There is plenty of ‘wiggle-room’ without causing much damage on the charts
- As long as 1327 is held the existing upward trend-line remains in-tact.
- Some weakness here is not surprising, considering the extent of which the market has moved over the past six trading days (on average more than 10 points per day).
- If today’s weakness holds, the SPX should come off of the overbought levels that it has been experiencing.
- Gap downs in the market, like we are seeing today, are often hard to maintain, and usually attracts dip-buyers. Be very cautious and don’t get overly excited about the early morning action in the markets.
- This isn’t the time to add new short positions – you do that on bounces.
- Breaking through the 1390′s will be difficult as there are plenty of separate resistance levels in that area.
- Safe to assume that volume will be light this week as it was on Monday and Tuesday, as many traders/investors will take the remainder of the week off.
- Volume in general continues to be relatively light during the past month of trading.
- SPX has now made new highs on the uptrend that began on 6/4.
- 30-minute chart continues to highlight the need for a pullback in the short-term.
- Below 1306-1308 price level, will nullify the current rally off of the 6/4 lows.
- Would represent a ‘lower-low’ in the market.
- VIX dropping hard and is now below 18.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Good chance that today’s weakness may take me out of 1-2 long positions.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – O(Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)
- Will look to add new long positions on the early morning weakness.
- Closed out NFLX yesterday at 77.68 from $70.00 for a 11% gain.
- Covered WLT at $47.05 from $45.81 for a -2.7% loss.
- Bought WBC at $53.98 yesterday.
- Bought on Tuesday .
- May add an additional 1-2 positions, as well as close out any non-performers.
- If UA continues to struggle, it will be a prime candidate for me to scrap.
- I don’t see really any strong evidence to be short “right-now”. Don’t short the market right now expecting the market to come to its senses. It could be a long painful wait.
- Speaking from experience.
- Still long WNR at $20.51, CMG at 378.44, UA at $93.09, HD at $51.50 .
- Increasing my stop-loss in WNR to $22.70 locking in 10.7% in gains and providing plenty of wiggle-room for the stock.
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Trading Plan for June 28, 2012 | SharePlanner
Pre-market Update (Updated 9:00am eastern):
- US futures are moderately lower ahead of the open.
- European markets are trading -1.1% lower.
- Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): GDP (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Corporate Profits (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am), Farm Prices (3pm)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- SPX has managed to rally for the second day in a row and there by establishing a potential new “higher-low’ since the rally off of the 6/4 lows.
- Unable to break through the 10-day moving average, and minor resistance at 1035.
- Ideally, SPX needs to get back above 1360, to put to rest recent weakness, and the notion that the market is turning lower.
- Below 1306-1308 price level, will nullify the current rally off of the 6/4 lows.
- Would represent a ‘lower-low’ in the market.
- We are coming off of the oversold territory.
- Moderate gap downs like we are seeing this morning have been problematic for SPX to hold through out the day, and ultimately results in a notable rally off of those morning lows.
- Recent exception was on 6/25 where SPX managed to continue selling off the initial gap-down.
- Bulls have in place a bullish island reversal on the SPY chart, which is very similar to the one that we put in on 6/1-6/5 and rallied thereafter for a two-week period.
- Weekly chart is showing a shooting-star pattern last week, followed by weakness to begin this week
- Very traditional bearish pattern.
- VIX just a shade below 20.
- I’ve kept my current stop-losses in place.
- I’d like to add new long positions to the portfolio, but will wait to see first this morning if we put in a bottom after this gap-down first.
- I’ll be looking closely at what the market does here, and whether I need to flip my long bias to the short side.
- Will continue trading with a mixture of long and short positions.
- Bought AUTH yesterday at $4.13.
- I’m willing to add more shorts to the portfolio at this point.
- I am still long AMZN at $221.60, AUTH at $4.13, WNR at $20.51 and short CHD at $52.74 and ABC at $37.48
