The benefits and pitfalls of different technical indicators

Type: Webinar

Register for this Session

The benefits and pitfalls of different technical indicators
Expert: Ian Coleman, Analyst at First4Trading
Moderator: Vicky Ferrer
Start: Tue, Apr 10 2012 11:00 GMT
End: Tue, Apr 10 2012 11:45 GMT
Participants: 2 pre-registered participants

Summary:
Ian is going to discuss a variety of technical indicators from lagging oscillator’s for forward looking projection tools. We are going to highlight the benefits and pitfalls and how certain tools can enhance your technical forecasts.

How to find low-priced growth stocks

By Tom Lloyd Sr.

Recently, someone asked us to find low-priced, growth stocks, and the
StockpickerUSA.com system
quickly went through 8,000 stocks and came up with some names.
Bebe Stores



/quotes/zigman/70419/quotes/nls/bebe BEBE
+0.11%



 was one of them that seemed attractive. When it comes to growth, we want GARP, growth at a reasonable price.

The rules of selection were:

1) stock price under 15

2) growth stock in the top 30% of stocks

3) Seven or more analysts following the stock (to have good forecast input into the forecast models)

4) a good overall score between 3, best, and 9 (where 30 is the worst score) Note that this score evaluates fundamentals, technical and forecast data.

5) And to keep the list small, we limited the universe to stocks with options.

You can go into the StockpickerUSA.com system free trial and duplicate our search using these rules.

Coming up with the names is the easiest and fastest part of the process, but only the first step. Now comes the difficult part of doing due diligence research on the stock.

Professional portfolio managers will do an enormous amount of research on any name they come up with. They may have their own research staff in-house. They will use all of the analyst reports they can find, published by Wall Street and for which they will pay handsomely by funneling trades to brokers providing the research reports. The biggest portfolio managers, with the most money to spend for research, will get the “first call.”

The small investor cannot duplicate this kind of due diligence research. That is why the small investor must complete the process by turning to a professional financial adviser. There are many services available from discount brokers that supply such services as SP reports, Zach’s, Value Line, Morningstar, etc. But none will duplicate what is available to the professional portfolio manager with billions under management.

The small investor can do some preliminary due diligence on the Internet. First, look at a chart for BEBE (click here) just to make sure the stock is in an uptrend, hopefully coming up from a recent bottom, and has no technical sell signals on the chart.

Next, go to another chart and data service to verify chart signals and the metrics being used by fundamental and technical analysis models we use. Look for the recent analyst upgrades and price targets. Check the analyst mean
target (click here.)
Also check Yahoo
(click here.)

Finally, check what some of the professional portfolio managers are doing with BEBE. Yahoo provides some data on portfolio managers
(click here.)
And Tickerspy not only shows the portfolio managers but also whether they are buying or selling
(click here).
Keep in mind that this data is old. Reading a chart will tell you what the portfolio managers are currently doing. If price is still in an uptrend they are still buying. That is why “the trend is your friend.”

Disclosure: The selection of BEBE was published to StockpickerUSA.com subscribers.

/quotes/zigman/70419/quotes/nls/bebe

Add to portfolio

BEBE

French Nuclear Safety Body: Reactor To Resume After Technical Analysis

PARIS (Dow Jones)–French nuclear safety agency ASN Friday said the Penly reactor that leaked radioactivate water Thursday evening won’t resume operating until ASN releases the conclusions …

Oil Forecast April 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Light Sweet Crude markets had a slight bounce on Thursday as the bulls came back into the picture to try and lift the market higher. The selloff lately truly has been a bit strong and more than likely predicated on a stronger Dollar more than anything else. Certainly, the Middle East isn’t much calmer, and the demand hasn’t waned from such places as India, China, and Indonesia. The overall outlook for oil should be strong over time, but this isn’t to say that a pullback couldn’t happen.

The $100 level below should certainly cause some kind of reaction, and because of this we suspect the market will continue to find buyers, even if it does have a bearish tone to it at the moment. The longer-term trader will certainly understand that the oil markets rise over time, and there is a real threat to them continuing. However, as the most recent action has shown us – it will not be a straight shot up for this commodity.

The selling of this market isn’t a thought to us until a daily close below the $95 level, as we see it as being a “floor” for the bulls in this market. The pullback that we have seen could simply be a move to break the market back down to the previous consolidation area between $95 and $105. The positive candle for the Thursday session was an inside candle, as the fall on Wednesday was much stronger. This suggests that we may see a bias to the downside for a little longer as the bulls couldn’t quite overtake the damage done by the bears on Wednesday. The other factor that we will need to monitor is that the Non-Farm Payroll number comes out today and this can often influence the oil markets as well, as it is one of the biggest indicators on economic growth.

Because of this, we are actually prepared to wait out this market until Monday, and react accordingly. Quite frankly, until we get below $95, we are looking to buy – but haven’t had the supportive candles yet.

Oil Forecast April 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The benefits and pitfalls of different technical indicator’s / oscillator’s

Type: Webinar

Register for this Session

The benefits and pitfalls of different technical indicators
Expert: Ian Coleman, Analyst at First4Trading
Moderator: Vicky Ferrer
Start: Tue, Apr 10 2012 11:00 GMT
End: Tue, Apr 10 2012 11:45 GMT
Participants: 2 pre-registered participants

Summary:
Ian is going to discuss a variety of technical indicators from lagging oscillator’s for forward looking projection tools. We are going to highlight the benefits and pitfalls and how certain tools can enhance your technical forecasts.

Gold Forecast April 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The gold markets rose for the Thursday session, but didn’t recapture the horrendous fall that we saw on Wednesday. The market still looks likely to face headwinds, and the lack of inflation forecasts out of the Federal Reserve will continue to hamper the bulls in this market. However, there are still plenty of central banks “printing” currencies, and as such there will still be a bid for gold from time to time.

The overall bullishness of this market has been around for over eleven years now, so we aren’t quite ready to sell this market yet. The “floor” to us is the $1,500 level, and as a result we still think there is room to see support come in. However, being honest in our opinions it is hard to get ready to buy in the currently environment.

For starters, we would have to see stability in this market for a few sessions as we have fallen so hard lately. It will take a certain amount of stability to instill confidence in the market for the bulls. The losses over the last several sessions will certainly have been tough for a lot of the bulls, and they will be nervous about getting involved at this point.

The $1,600 level should be supportive as well, but only time will tell if it holds. It is certainly an area that we would be interested in buying on supportive signs, but it would have to be a slow grind down to that level in order to buy supportive candles in a bid to run back to the $1,700 level, an area that we think it would run to next if we bounced.

The next level above that is the $1,800 handle, and it is there that the bulls will have taken complete control. In reality, we will more than likely see a lot of noise in this market for the short-term, and the action will be rough. At this point in time, we are still bullish, but would be hard pressed to be involved just yet. Non-Farm Payroll comes out today as well, and this can of course have an effect on this market too. Being patient seems to be the route to go in this market.

Gold Forecast April 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

Bisbee, Verrone, Deming Discuss Staffing Stocks

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Silver’s Trend and the Death of Technical Analysis

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
Apr 05, 2012 – 11:12 AM

By: Steve_St_Angelo

The death of technical analysis has arrived.  What took place in the markets (especially in the precious metals) on April 3rd 4th proves this in spades.  There were several calls made prior to the takedown, by some very well known individuals in the precious metal field, that became NULL VOID when either bottoms or chart patterns failed.

I am not going to name names, but I would imagine those who have been following the gold and silver markets for quite some time, know who I am talking about.  That being said, I don’t blame them one bit.  Trying to make short term calls based on technical analysis presently has become nearly impossible when the markets are constantly manipulated.  I think it is time that we all just realize a monkey throwing a dart at a trend line on a wall is just as useful as short term technical analysis.

There are only a few technical analysts that I respect.  They gain my favor due to the fact that they use technical analysis to forecast future inflationary trends.  Those who are still predicting deflation in their charts may need to find other employment as their calls have been wrong time and time again.

Furthermore, I am completely surprised by the psychotic nature of the so-called RISK ON RISK OFF TRADE.  Doesn’t anyone take the time to stand back for a minute and just look at what is going on?  Does anyone see the insanity of it all?  It is simply amazing to watch grown adults place bets one day, and then take them back the next – a trend which occurs over and over again.

I decided to take a stab at my own version of technical analysis as it pertains to the silver market between April 2nd and April 4th.

If we follow the numbers, we can get a clear picture of what took place in the price of silver over the past three days.  In number 1, we see the typical RISK ON – RISK OFF trade.  This is shown in the SAD FACE PATTERN.  On April 2nd, after silver added $0.70, the line of resistance occurs at the bottom of the EAR LINE LEVEL (number 2).  Following the FOMC meeting which occurred the very next day, the market responded appropriately by taking back all bets knocking the price of silver back down to the very same level it was the day before… this is shown in number 1 3.

Once trading commenced during our favorite early London Markets, the Neck Line was broken and the price of silver dropped all the way down to the BELLY-BUTTON SUPPORT LINE.  This can be found looking at the number 4 chart description.  We are going to have to wait and see if this support line is broken in the next several days.  If so, the next line of support will be at the BELT LINE and below that is the next support level at the KNEE LINE.

If the price of silver can rally from here, the first line of resistance will be the NECK LINE followed by the BOTTOM EAR LINE.  If we can take out both of these levels, there is no resistance until we reach the top of where the BASEBALL CAP LINE would be. 

All kidding aside, I do believe it’s time for the precious metals community to move their focus away from short term technical analysis and to concentrate on fundamentals and long term trends instead.  (The chart above was courtesy of Kitco.com with my added comments)

SILVER’S TEN YEAR TREND

Even though I believe the price of silver will trend much higher over the next several years, these short-term manipulated market corrections can still be quite frustrating.   After reading a great deal of frustrated investors on several internet blogs, I decided to put together a 10 Year Silver Trend Chart.   While it is true I find very little benefit in short term technical analysis, I do see a great deal of merit in charting long term trends.

If we remove all the volatility and focus only on the annual average price of silver, we can see that the overall trend is still quite positive.  Not only is the trend positive, but it is starting to head into an exponential trajectory. 

The average annual silver price is shown by the light blue line.  The average price of silver in 2012 is currently $32.63 which is lower than 2011 when it hit $35.12.  It is difficult to make a forecast on where the average price of silver will be in 2012, but we still have almost nine months remaining in the year to find out.  If we do get an “Official Announcement of QE 3” shortly, silver should have no problem taking out the previous year’s average price.  I did say “Official”, as QE has not stopped regardless of what MSM regurgitates on a daily basis.

The white dashed line is a polynomial trend based on silver’s annual average price line.  This polynomial trend removes even more volatility to give the reader a clearer picture of where silver is heading.  Both of these lines are superimposed over the M1 M2 money supply chart areas.  In 2002, the M1 money supply was $1,197 billion and the M2 money supply was $5,587 billion.  Today the M1 money supply has grown to $2,208 and M2 is now $9,788.  The price of silver is moving higher along with the increase of both M1 and M2 money supply.  There is a clear distinction between the two – while the money supply is heading up in a linear fashion; the price of silver is now heading into an exponential trend.  I would imagine we would be witnessing a steeper exponential chart pattern if it weren’t for the past 6-8 month BUSHWACK HAMMER TRADE mastered by the wonderful folks in Wall Street and at the FED.

CRITICAL FACTORS THAT WILL IMPACT SILVER

I did not plan on writing this article as I am currently working on two that will be out shortly.  The first one will be titled Critical Factors That Will Impact Silver.  I will be discussing several important areas that will impact the price of silver as well as its future supply.  There will be several charts and graphs that compare how the money supply during the 1930’s depression impacted silver much like it has today.

There will also be an update on the top three silver miners in 2011 along with some very interesting surprises.  I will be publishing this article before the Silver Institute puts out their 2011 World Silver Survey on April 19. 

For example, silver production at the Fresnillo mine (Mexico’s largest primary silver mine) declined a whopping 15.5% in 2011 due to falling ore grades.   Fresnillo has increased its diesel consumption to bring more gold and silver production to the market.  Without growing supplies of diesel in the future, the mining industry hits a brick wall.  This will be discussed in greater detail in the following article that focuses on diesel consumption in the top 5 gold mining companies as well as copper industry.

A FEW WORD TO READERS WHO SEND EMAIL REPLIES

One of the most rewarding aspects of writing these articles is getting replies from readers in all corners of the world.  I enjoy doing the research that goes into these articles, but I do make mistakes.  Several readers have sent information that have either changed my opinion or provided me with data that I was unable to find.  I just want to say… I really appreciate the feedback and look forward to it.  I also encourage anyone in the industry who has actual field experience to send an email as to their opinion or expertise on whether or not the information in the article is accurate or worthy.

Steve St .Angelo Independent researcher residing in southwest Utah

Contact SRSrocco@gmail.com

© 2012 Copyright Steve St .Angelo – All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2012 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk – The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis Forecasting online publication.

Comments

EUR/CHF Forecast April 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

The EUR/CHF pair fell on Wednesday as the markets continues to punish the Europeans for debt issues. The Spanish had trouble selling bonds, and the markets reacted like you would expect…by selling the Euro on the whole. The European Central Bank Chairman Mario Draghi also made many dovish statements during the session’s press conference, so the Euro should continue to weaken as it is obviously now where near close to seeing a rate hike.

The pair has a long standing “floor” in it at the 1.20 level, and as long as he Swiss National Bank is willing to defend this area, we think that the only way to go is to buy the pair. The pair has been a great way to earn scalps from time to time, and as a result we have been buying the closer we get to 1.20, and simply collecting a dozen or so pips at a time. The worst case scenario would be a breakdown below the 1.20 level that triggers intervention by the Swiss, and this would more than likely send the pair to the 1.24 area. Because of this, we see the trade as one of the easiest to do, as the ultimate backstop is a central bank that has even went so far as to name their level of protection.

The situation is probably going to remain tight though, as there is no real reason to buy the Euro overall. The EU is going into recession, and the ECB head Mario Draghi was very dovish during the press conference today stating that the EU was in trouble essentially. This should continue to dampen the demand for the Euro, and one has to think that the Swiss National Bank is probably intervening already in a clandestine fashion. The bank has already stated that it was willing to “buy unlimited Euros” in order to defend the level. Because of this, we are willing to take advantage of this situation, and we think it is one we can be involved with for some time forward. Obviously, selling isn’t a thought.

EUR/CHF Forecast April 5, 2012, Technical Analysis