Archive for April, 2012
The benefits and pitfalls of different technical indicators
Type: Webinar
Register for this Session
The benefits and pitfalls of different technical indicators
Expert: Ian Coleman, Analyst at First4Trading
Moderator: Vicky Ferrer
Start: Tue, Apr 10 2012 11:00 GMT
End: Tue, Apr 10 2012 11:45 GMT
Participants: 2 pre-registered participants
Summary:
Ian is going to discuss a variety of technical indicators from lagging oscillator’s for forward looking projection tools. We are going to highlight the benefits and pitfalls and how certain tools can enhance your technical forecasts.
How to find low-priced growth stocks
By Tom Lloyd Sr.
Recently, someone asked us to find low-priced, growth stocks, and the
StockpickerUSA.com system
quickly went through 8,000 stocks and came up with some names.
Bebe Stores
/quotes/zigman/70419/quotes/nls/bebe BEBE
+0.11%
was one of them that seemed attractive. When it comes to growth, we want GARP, growth at a reasonable price.
The rules of selection were:
1) stock price under 15
2) growth stock in the top 30% of stocks
3) Seven or more analysts following the stock (to have good forecast input into the forecast models)
4) a good overall score between 3, best, and 9 (where 30 is the worst score) Note that this score evaluates fundamentals, technical and forecast data.
5) And to keep the list small, we limited the universe to stocks with options.
You can go into the StockpickerUSA.com system free trial and duplicate our search using these rules.
Coming up with the names is the easiest and fastest part of the process, but only the first step. Now comes the difficult part of doing due diligence research on the stock.
Professional portfolio managers will do an enormous amount of research on any name they come up with. They may have their own research staff in-house. They will use all of the analyst reports they can find, published by Wall Street and for which they will pay handsomely by funneling trades to brokers providing the research reports. The biggest portfolio managers, with the most money to spend for research, will get the “first call.”
The small investor cannot duplicate this kind of due diligence research. That is why the small investor must complete the process by turning to a professional financial adviser. There are many services available from discount brokers that supply such services as SP reports, Zach’s, Value Line, Morningstar, etc. But none will duplicate what is available to the professional portfolio manager with billions under management.
The small investor can do some preliminary due diligence on the Internet. First, look at a chart for BEBE (click here) just to make sure the stock is in an uptrend, hopefully coming up from a recent bottom, and has no technical sell signals on the chart.
Next, go to another chart and data service to verify chart signals and the metrics being used by fundamental and technical analysis models we use. Look for the recent analyst upgrades and price targets. Check the analyst mean
target (click here.)
Also check Yahoo
(click here.)
Finally, check what some of the professional portfolio managers are doing with BEBE. Yahoo provides some data on portfolio managers
(click here.)
And Tickerspy not only shows the portfolio managers but also whether they are buying or selling
(click here).
Keep in mind that this data is old. Reading a chart will tell you what the portfolio managers are currently doing. If price is still in an uptrend they are still buying. That is why “the trend is your friend.”
Disclosure: The selection of BEBE was published to StockpickerUSA.com subscribers.
/quotes/zigman/70419/quotes/nls/bebe
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BEBE
French Nuclear Safety Body: Reactor To Resume After Technical Analysis
PARIS (Dow Jones)–French nuclear safety agency ASN Friday said the Penly reactor that leaked radioactivate water Thursday evening won’t resume operating until ASN releases the conclusions …
Dismal jobs report pushes up Treasury prices
Treasury prices shot higher Friday after a weak jobs report.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.06 percent after the Labor Department released its monthly employment survey. The yield was 2.18 percent late Thursday. The price of the note jumped $1.13 for every $100 invested.
Bond yields fall when their prices rise. That means more people are trying to buy the bonds, which are less risky than stocks and commodities. Investors tend to pile into Treasurys when they’re worried about the economy.
Treasury yields also fell Wednesday and Thursday as traders worried that Spain could become the next European country to run into trouble with its debts.
The government said 120,000 net jobs were created in the U.S. last month, far fewer than analysts were expecting and down from more than 200,000 in each of the three previous months. The unemployment rate edged down to 8.2 percent from 8.3 percent, but mostly because more people stopped looking for work
Bond trading closed at noon Eastern for the Good Friday holiday. Stock and commodities trading were closed. Stock index futures fell sharply in the 45 minutes trading was open after the jobs report came out. Standard Poor’s 500 index futures fell 1.1 percent in the abbreviated session.
In other bond trading, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell to 3.22 percent from 3.32 percent late Thursday. Its price jumped $2.03 per $100 invested. The yield on the two-year note fell to 0.32 percent from 0.35 percent.
The yield on the three-month T-bill was 0.07 percent.
Stock futures, dollar sink after jobs data
By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures and the dollar slumped Friday, while Treasury prices surged after government data delivered an unwelcome surprise on a day when most markets were closed: Only 120,000 jobs were created in March, well below market expectations.
Equity futures had been slightly higher, but turned sharply lower after the Labor Department report — the first time since November that job growth dropped below the 200,000 level. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected a rise of 210,000.
The unemployment rate fell to 8.2% from 8.3%, mostly because more people dropped out of the work force.
Read more about the jobs report.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
/quotes/zigman/8750834 DJM2
-1.06%
dropped 132 points to 12,846 and those on the Standard Poor’s 500 stock index
/quotes/zigman/900181 SPM2
-1.17%
fell 15.30 points to 1,374.90.
U.S. added 120,000 jobs in March
The U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs last month, less than expected and an indication that momentum could be slowing. Phil Izzo and David Wessel have the details. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Nasdaq 100 futures
/quotes/zigman/4225619 NDM2
-1.13%
declined 30 points to 2,723.70.
The U.S. stock market is closed for the Good Friday holiday, but U.S. stock futures gave an indication of how the market may open on Monday when traders return from the long Easter weekend.
As the stock market’s traditionally worst six-month period (May through October) is approaching and after a blowout first quarter, some on Wall Street see a stock slide looming.
Read more about the outlook for stocks.
U.S. equities closed this week with losses. The Dow
/quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA
-0.11%
fell 0.1% on Thursday, posting a weekly loss of 1.2% for its worst week since mid-December. The SP 500
/quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX
-0.06%
also ended marginally lower yesterday, registering a loss of 0.7%.
Read more about Thursday’s action.
The jobs report “likely means that QE3 [a third round of quantitative easing] is alive and about to be implemented, but that is not all,” said Kevin Giddis, fixed-income strategist at Morgan Keegan Co., in emailed comments. “There are increased worries about the euro zone and investors appear to [be] more defensive in their spending,” he noted.
ECONOMY AND POLITICS
Economy and Politics page
March payroll growth disappoints
The U.S. economy added just 120,000 new jobs in March, the smallest increase
in five months, says the Labor Department. The unemployment rate edged
down to 8.2% due largely to folks dropping out of the work force.
• Jobs report not a game-changer
(First Take)
•
Is the jobless recovery still alive? (FINS)
• Impact of jobs numbers on Obama ratings
•
Romney calls jobs ‘very troubling’
•
U.S. economic calendar
•
Global economic calendar
• Columns:
Nutting
Delamaide
Kellner
•
Market Snapshot
Bond Report
Currencies
•
•
Sign up for breaking-news alerts by email
/conga/story/misc/dc.html
201558
This week, concerns about the euro-zone debt crisis were rekindled by a poor bond auction in Spain, which triggered a spike in borrowing costs for the southern European nation.
“The bottom line is that as long as Europe is unsettled, as long as the job market is less than steady, as long as the Fed keeps pumping new stimulus into the market, yields will stay low and investors will stay where the water is calm…in Treasurys,” Giddis said.
Bonds rally
Investors sought the perceived safety of government bonds Friday; the bond market is open for a holiday-shortened session.
Treasury prices rallied, pushing yields lower.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes
/quotes/zigman/4868283/delayed 10_YEAR
-5.68%
, which move inversely to prices, sank 13 basis points to 2.05%. The yield was at 2.193% shortly before the release of the jobs data.
Read more about the action in the bond market.
In the currency markets, the dollar fell against other major currencies, posting a particularly steep drop against the Japanese yen, which tends to be seen as a safe-haven currency.
Read Currencies.
The dollar index
/quotes/zigman/1652083 DXY
-0.28%
, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of rivals, dropped to 79.826 in afternoon trade from 80.084 before the data. The index traded at 80.101 late Thursday.
The dollar
/quotes/zigman/4868099/sampled USDJPY
-0.9509%
fell 0.8% against the Japanese unit to 81.57 yen, while the euro
/quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled EURUSD
+0.2232%
gained 0.3% to $1.3096.
The commodity markets are closed on Friday.
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DJM2
/quotes/zigman/900181
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SPM2
/quotes/zigman/4225619
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NDM2
/quotes/zigman/627449
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DJIA
/quotes/zigman/3870025
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SPX
/quotes/zigman/4868283/delayed
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10_YEAR
/quotes/zigman/1652083
Add to portfolio
DXY
/quotes/zigman/4868099/sampled
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USDJPY
/quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled
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EURUSD
Polya Lesova is MarketWatch’s New York deputy bureau chief.
GLOBAL MARKETS-US stock futures hammered on US jobs data
* Stock futures fall as March U.S. payrolls disappoint
* Europe, U.S. and some Asia markets closed for holiday
* Euro rallies, off three-week lows vs dollar
* Gold heads for weekly loss
By Chikako Mogi and David Gaffen
NEW YORK/TOKYO, April 6 (Reuters) – U.S. stock futures fell
more than 1 percent and Treasuries prices rallied in a
holiday-thinned session on Friday following disappointing U.S.
job growth for March.
U.S. payrolls grew by 120,000 in March, far below the
expected gain of 203,000 jobs.
Trading volumes were light because of the Good Friday
holiday and market closings in Europe, and Treasuries rallied
sharply, with the benchmark 10-year note gaining 26/32 to drop
its yield to 2.10 percent.
SP 500 futures fell 16.2 points, or 1.2 percent, to
1374, suggesting a weak open on Monday as the cash market is
closed Friday. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.1 percent, or
31.25 points, to 2722.75 in thin trading. Dow futures
dropped 137 points, or 1.1 percent, to 12,847.
The euro rose against the dollar to $1.3092 after
hitting a three-week low of $1.3035 on Thursday and was poised
for its worst week in nearly four months, while the dollar index
, measured against key currencies, slipped from three-week
highs to 79.86.
The weak payrolls report could renew hopes for more monetary
stimulus from the Federal Reserve. This week’s release of
minutes from its March meeting suggested less of an appetite for
more stimulus despite committee members expressing worries about
the sluggish pace of U.S. growth.
“This is going to keep the Fed in easy-policy mode,” said
Sean Incremona, economist at 4cast Ltd in New York.
“They’re going to want to see a step toward 300,000 before
they start to think about seeing a stronger outlook for the
economy.”
The SP 500′s loss for the week of 0.7 percent was its
biggest weekly decline of the year as yields on Spain’s debt
continued to march higher and its equity market plumbed lows not
seen since the height of the euro zone’s crisis last year.
Spain’s rising bond yields, which have revived concerns
about Europe’s debt problems, could temper buying interest in
coming weeks.
U.S. markets next week will focus on the beginning of
earnings season, as bellwethers J.P. Morgan Chase Co
and Google Inc are expected to report results.
Trading was thin as markets in Australia, Hong Kong and
Singapore were closed for the long Easter holiday weekend.
Asian shares struggled earlier on Friday as investors stuck
to the sidelines, avoiding risk after rising yields in weaker
euro-zone economies refuelled concerns about the region’s debt
issues.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan
inched higher with a 0.09 percent gain. The
index hit a four-week low on Thursday.
A slew of data due next week from China, the world’s second
largest economy after the United States, also deterred investors
from taking positions, as signs of sharper-than-expected
slowdown could further undermine sentiment.
Gold ticked higher to $1,637.99 an ounce in thin
trade on Friday but was headed for a weekly decline of more than
2 percent. Bullion hit a near three-month low of $1,611.80 this
week. Metals futures markets are closed Friday.
Oil rose on Thursday after two straight days of losses on
firm U.S. data and fears of Iran-related supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures climbed 0.89 percent to settle at
$123.43 a barrel, and U.S. crude jumped 1.81 percent to
settle at $103.31. Energy futures trading is closed Friday.
RATE FUTURES REPORT: Yields Seen To Fall On Anemic Job Gains
–Reaction perhaps overdone because of illiquid holiday market
–Disappointing jobs report lifts Treasury futures to 3 1/2-week highs
–Hope fade for late 2013-early 2014 funds rate hike
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–Data revealing much slower job growth in the U.S. ignited a strong rally for most U.S. interest rate futures contracts on Friday, but a lack of liquidity during the holiday-shortened session may have exaggerated the market’s move.
Higher prices reflect expectations for lower rates. Friday’s action amounted to a yield curve flattening, as investors predicted that longer-term rates would fall and shorter-term rates would hold near record low levels.
In federal-funds …
Disappointing March jobs report sends futures lower
NEW YORK |
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stock futures closed lower on Friday in brief, holiday-thinned trading after a much weaker-than-expected report on U.S. job growth for March.
Trading volumes were light because of the Good Friday holiday and market closings in Europe. SP 500 futures fell 1.2 percent, suggesting a weak open on Monday as the cash market is closed Friday.
U.S. payrolls grew by 120,000 in March, worse than the forecasted gain of 203,000 jobs. The unemployment rate dipped to 8.2 percent, down from 8.3 percent in February.
The weak payrolls report could renew hopes for more monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve. This week’s release of minutes from its March meeting suggested less of an appetite for more stimulus despite committee members expressing worries about the sluggish pace of U.S. growth.
U.S. equities have rallied sharply in recent months, gaining nearly 30 percent since early October to push the SP 500 near four-year highs. The market has stalled in the last few weeks as investors question the swiftness of the gains and whether economic data is strong enough to warrant higher stock prices.
“This is going to keep the Fed in easy-policy mode,” said Sean Incremona, economist at 4cast Ltd in New York.
“They’re going to want to see a step toward 300,000 (job gains) before they start to think about seeing a stronger outlook for the economy.”
SP 500 futures fell 16.20 points to 1374. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.1 percent, or 31.25 points, to 2722.75 in thin trading. Dow futures dropped 137 points, or 1.1 percent, to 12,841.
Earnings will come to the fore next week, with bellwethers Google Inc (GOOG.O) and J.P. Morgan Chase Co (JPM.N) expected to report results.
The SP 500′s loss for the week of 0.7 percent was its biggest weekly decline of the year as yields on Spain’s debt continued to march higher and its equity market plumbed lows not seen since the height of the euro zone’s crisis last year.
On Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 14.61 points, or 0.11 percent, to 13,060.14 at the close. The Standard Poor’s 500 Index .SPX dipped 0.88 of a point, or 0.06 percent, to 1,398.08. But the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 12.41 points, or 0.40 percent, to 3,080.50.
(Editing by Padraic Cassidy)
Oil prices rise on Iran supply fears
Oil prices rose again on Thursday, pushed up by concerns over disruptions to supplies from Iran.
As well as imminent western sanctions against Tehran because of its nuclear programme, the country’s efforts to export crude will be complicated by news that a major Chinese ship insurer is no longer going to provide cover for tankers carrying Iranian oil.
Brent crude is up by more than 12 percent since the start of the year and analysts worry that this will hit economic growth.
Simon Wardell, Senior Oil Analyst with IHS Global Insight, said prices must fall to avoid such an impact: “The global economy is still recovering and these sorts of prices knock that back a bit, so certainly we should see prices lower.
”
With a European Union embargo on Iranian oil coming into force at the start of July, and Japanese refiners reportedly planning to cut crude imports from Iran, Tehran will be even more dependent on buyers like China – its top customer – which is why the tanker insurance move is so significant.
Reuters is reporting that sources at insurer China PI Club have said that the company does not want to stand alone in the market, especially after insurers in Japan and Europe plan to either limit or ban their own coverage for tankers operating in Iran.
The China PI Club, whose members include major Chinese shipping firms Sinotrans and COSCO Group, is the first Chinese maritime insurer to confirm it will halt business with tankers operating in Iran.
“Many ship owners want to join our club and want our club to cover this risk, but considering all these regulations from the United States and the EU, I know the China PI club will not do that,” said a Hong Kong-based official with the insurer, which provides coverage to more than 1,000 vessels.
“The China PI club will not take the risk.
We have asked our members not to go there, if they go there, they take their own risk,” the official added, who wished not to be named because he was not authorised to speak to the media.
Iran’s other major buyers — India, Japan and South Korea — are running into similar problems, raising questions on how Tehran will be able to continue to export the bulk of its oil.
Iran sells most of its 2.
2 million barrels per day of oil exports in Asia, where China, India, Japan and South Korea are the four biggest buyers.
Chinese imports from Iran are already down more than 21 percent in the first two months of 2012 to around 395,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last year.
SOURCE: euronews
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Gold, Silver and Crude Oil Prices and Trading
Gold futures prices finished pit trade Thursday higher on
Short covering and bargain-hunting after the strong selling
pressure that took prices to an 11-wk low Wednesday.
Higher Crude Oil prices boosted the precious metals Bulls, but
a higher USD index Thursday limited the upside.
Jun Gold last traded + 7.20 at 1,628.00 oz.
Spot Gold was last quoted + 16.60 at 1,630.00 oz.
May Comex Silver last traded + 0.636 at 31.68 oz.
The precious metals markets are working to recover from strong
downside price action Tuesday and Wednesday that produced fresh
near-term technical damage in Gold and Silver. The Bulls have
work to do in the near term in both markets.
The European Union (
EU
) sovereign debt crisis rose up again this week as Spanish and
Italian bond yields rose significantly, pressuring the Euro
currency and boost the USD index Thursday.
Do not be surprised if the EU debt crisis is the focus again
next week. The questions on traders’ minds is whether Gold would
act like a risk asset and be pressured by the situation, or if
Gold will see fresh safe-haven demand on any escalation in the EU
debt crisis.
The USD index traded higher Thursday and hit a fresh 3 wk high
on more Short covering due to the Dollar-positive implications of
no further quantitative easing (QE) from the US Fed.
The stronger “Greenback” is a Bearish underlying factor for
the precious metals.
Crude Oil prices were up on Thursday after falling to a 7-wk
low Wednesday. The weaker near-term technical posture of the
Crude Oil market is also a negative for Gold and Silver.
WTI Crude Oil last traded at 103.27 + 1.80 (1.77)
Traders are anticipating what some are calling the most
important US economic report of the month Friday morning; the US
employment report.
The London PM Gold fixing was 1,621.00 vs. the prior PM fixing
of 1,676.25.
The US markets are closed for Good Friday.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
.com
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red
Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a
weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion
makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and
stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career
that included investment banking, and market and business
analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an
accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to
Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.
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